by Mark Sponsler – www.stormsurf.com
photo’s and graphics – mavsurfer

Modern wave-warriors dont sacrifice burning surfboards as offerings to ocean gods, or spend days scanning the horizon, or even hours reverently listening to weather radios in hopes of eliciting first telltale signs of an epic swell. We no longer depend on rumors, mystical incantations, or even the gospel sold by surf forecasting companies to satisfy our need for adrenaline pumping details about every aspect of upcoming waves.

The combination of the Freedom of Information Act and proliferation of the Internet have made the best of near real-time meteorological data available to all, practically for free. Both top ranked and less experienced surfers are trading up and developing their own predictive skills. Drive yourself crazy with anticipation watching forecasts for the next big storm, two weeks before it forms. View its beautiful evolution while it spits out 40 foot seas. Predict when the swell will arrive to within an hour, how big it will be to the foot, what the period will be to within a second, swell angle to within a few degrees, including local winds and tide with an amazing degree of accuracy. . If this sounds tantalizing, maybe youre ready to start making your own forecasts.

What should you look for and what makes a massive swell? Strong steady winds blowing towards your beach, over a large area of ocean, for a long duration of time (preferably the winds should not reach your beach though). Such conditions are normally achieved when a deep low-pressure system interacts with a strong high-pressure system. Contrast in surface air pressure makes wind, and the greater the pressure difference (known as a gradient), the greater the winds. If the gradient stays in-place for more than a day, and the resulting winds are aimed at you, a swell could be generated. If the last few sentences are over your head, you owe it to yourself to read a book on basic meteorology. Start the process of expanding your knowledge of the ocean and your environment.

Use the Internet to find all the raw surf prediction data you need. Detailed forecast maps identify when storm conditions might start developing with up to 10 days of forewarning. But, the maps only identify when and where to start looking for a swell-producing storm, they dont provide confirmation that its actually formed. Thats what satellite imagery is for. Infrared or visible photos (taken from geo-synchronous satellites stationary high over the equator) provide indications about how well the storm is organized. SSM/I sensors on lower polar orbiting satellites identify the strength (velocity), heading (direction), and area (fetch) of the surface winds in the storm. Each storm has a unique personality that heavily influences the characteristics of the swell it produces. Learn the personality of each storm, and youll know the feel of the swell before it arrives.

The ERS-2 and TOPEX satellites provide data about sea heights. Generally, the greater the sea heights, the larger the swells and the longer the period. Wave models (driven by output from the ERS-2 satellite and atmospheric models) can confirm where high seas are located, whether they are heading towards you, and how large an area of ocean they cover. You can then estimate the resulting swell period, and using some basic computations, estimate when the swell will arrive. Use buoys to fine-tune swell arrival times and swell heights. And finally, use local short-term models to predict wind conditions on the day the swell is expected to arrive. With a little practice, patience and reading, anyone can become a fairly competent surf forecaster. Internet links to forecast and satellite data can be found with little effort.

Understanding meteorology and the physical processes that make waves is as important to becoming a better surfer as knowing how to make a bottom turn, a cutback, or staying in shape. If you can appreciate the swell generation capacity of a 955 mb low interacting with a 1042 mb high or discern the difference between riding a swell of 10 feet @ 11 seconds versus 7 feet @ 25 seconds, then youre on the right track. It takes time and experience, but the rewards are an increased ability to surf all conditions. You can try and shortcut the learning process by purchasing surf forecasts. But be forewarned, theyre not telling you the good stuff. Its watered down baby pabulum designed to feed the masses. Critical details have been left out so the forecasters doesn’t get beat by angry locals and so they can score choice waves without sharing them with a pack of their less experienced clients. The good stuff lurks in the details, and you’ll have to travel the long road to get it. No one will give it or sell it to you.

Some will ask, “Is all this technology being applied in a pitiful attempt by our weak egos to conquer the beast of uncertainty and anticipation in a fruitless quest to know the future? Have we evolved much from the days when superstition, shaman and sorcerers were valued for their predictive abilities? Or are our fortune-tellers and fears now just dressed in modern clothes?” I suspect it’s human nature to desire to know the future. But surf forecasting doesn’t detract from the surfing experience, it enhances it, and helps us organize our lives to make living more fulfilling. Hell is to know the future before it happens, to rob life of the mystery of the journey and the reward of the unknown outcome. Surf forecasts dont tell us the future. They only lessen the probability of an unfavorable outcome.

Nothing changes once youre good at forecasting, the mystery remains. I still arrive at the beach, full of anticipation, mind racing with expectations and possibilities. With the sun casting its first rays through the cool early morning mist, I rush to peer out over the sea, straining to catch a glimpse of movement in the water. And just when it seems my prediction was wrong, I spy something. Maybe its a mirage, but wait! Far away from shore I glimpse the faint sight of a slate glass line, and then more, stacking to the horizon in all directions, and not another soul around. As the reality of the reward sinks in, I shout for joy, mind racing as I run for my board and suit-up. If only for the moment, I’ve touched heaven! Technology and information are not inherently evil, its how humans chose to apply them that either enhances life or makes it unbearable